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By Dr. Shakir Gargari
Dr. Shakir Gargari, a Kurdish researcher and academic, provides a profound analysis of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq’s situation amidst the complex geopolitical transformations in the Middle East. Through his studies in the English for Heritage Language Speakers (EHLS) program at Georgetown University and his in-depth research on ISIS occupation in Northern Iraq, Dr. Gargari sheds light on the economic, political, and security challenges facing the region. His personal experience as a Kurdish citizen, combined with his academic research, enables him to offer a unique perspective on how the Kurdistan Regional Government, led by Masrour Barzani, is addressing these challenges and pursuing reform and development in the face of internal and external pressures.
Since the formation of the ninth cabinet (2019) of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq under the leadership of Masrour Barzani, the region has witnessed significant developments both internally and externally. Amidst the complex geopolitical transformations in the Middle East, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq stands out as a unique model of autonomy and political ambition, surrounded by formidable challenges and promising opportunities alike.
The regional government faces a severe economic crisis, fueled by ongoing disputes with the central government in Baghdad over the region’s share of the federal budget and oil revenues. These disagreements, coupled with the global repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, have significantly reduced the financial resources available to the region, negatively impacting the government’s ability to meet its financial obligations, especially concerning employee salaries. Simultaneously, the tense relationship with Baghdad poses a continuous challenge, with issues such as control over disputed territories, particularly Kirkuk, remaining major points of contention that threaten the region’s political and security stability.
In the face of these challenges, the regional government has adopted an ambitious strategy for reform and development. It has begun implementing a series of economic reforms aimed at diversifying income sources, focusing on strengthening non-oil sectors such as agriculture and tourism. These steps, although still in their early stages, represent a positive trend towards building a more sustainable economy capable of withstanding global oil price fluctuations.
In terms of infrastructure, the government has made significant investments in projects across the transportation, energy, and communications sectors. These projects not only contribute to improving the quality of life for citizens but also work to create a more attractive environment for foreign investments. In the energy sector, the government has taken important steps to modernize electrical grids and improve oil extraction operations, contributing to increased sector efficiency and enhancing the region’s economic performance.
Among strategic infrastructure investment projects dam construction stands out as a pivotal component in water resource and energy management policy. The regional government considers these projects a strategic investment of utmost importance for achieving long-term water and food security. These dams aim to improve water resource management in the region, helping to regulate water flow for agricultural irrigation and provide drinking water for local populations. Additionally, they will play an important role in generating hydroelectric power, contributing to the diversification of energy sources in the region and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
However, dam construction projects also come with environmental challenges and concerns. The government recognizes the need to balance the benefits of these projects with their potential environmental impacts and is working on conducting comprehensive environmental impact assessments to ensure these projects are implemented sustainably. The government also seeks to cooperate with international organizations and experts in water management to apply global best practices in this field.
On the diplomatic front, the regional government has achieved notable successes in strengthening its foreign relations, both with neighboring countries and global powers. Such examples include the improving relations with the U.S. and Turkey and the opening of Consulates in a number of countries. These diplomatic efforts aim to attract investments and secure international support for the region, enhancing its position on the international stage. Nevertheless, managing relations with neighboring countries, especially Turkey and Iran, remains a delicate challenge requiring a delicate diplomatic balancing act.
As part of its efforts to promote good governance, the regional government has launched initiatives to combat corruption and improve transparency in government sectors. These efforts include establishing independent regulatory bodies and implementing electronic systems for government transactions, aiming to reduce opportunities for corruption and improve the efficiency of public services. These steps, although still in their early stages, are considered necessary to enhance the confidence of citizens and investors in government institutions.
The regional government looks to the future with an ambitious vision focusing on digital transformation and developing the technology sector. There are plans to develop digital infrastructure and stimulate innovation and start-ups, to position the region as a technology hub in the area. The government is also paying increasing attention to environmental sustainability issues, focusing on promoting the use of renewable energy and reducing dependence on unsustainable sources.
In the field of education, the government is working on updating curricula and developing educational infrastructure. There is a special focus on enhancing technical and vocational education programs to meet the changing needs of the labor market and reduce unemployment among youth. The government also seeks to enhance cooperation with international universities to improve higher education in the region.
In the context of U.S. national security, the political situation in the Kurdistan Region acquires great strategic importance. The normal political structure consists of two major parties; The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), of which the KDP enjoys a significant majority. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), led by Masoud Barzani, enjoys close relations with the United States, making it a fundamental axis in preserving American interests in the region. Military cooperation, especially in the field of counterterrorism, and the security of oil resources, enhance the strategic position of the United States in the Middle East. This cooperation was particularly prominent in the war against the ISIS terrorist organization, where the United States heavily relied on Kurdish Peshmerga forces. These forces played a crucial role in repelling ISIS attacks and liberating vast areas of northern Iraq, benefiting from U.S. support in training and weaponry. The success of this cooperation reinforced the Kurdistan Region’s position as a reliable strategic partner in the region and contributed to achieving U.S. security objectives without the need to deploy significant American ground forces.
On the other hand, the rapprochement of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Bafel Talabani, with Iran as a major source of concern for the United States. This concern stems not only from direct relations with Tehran but extends to include the close ties the party has with influential Iraqi figures who have strong connections to the armed militias implementing Iranian agendas in the region. Tensions are increased between Washington and the PUK as a number of figures and their associated militias are on the U.S. sanctions list issued by the Treasury Department. These intertwined relationships raise serious concerns among U.S. decision-makers, as they are seen as a channel for increasing Iranian influence not only in the Kurdistan Region but in Iraq as a whole and the entire region, which could undermine U.S. efforts aimed at limiting Iranian influence and ensuring regional stability. As a result, the United States has taken strict measures, including imposing sanctions on a number of Iraqi political figures associated with Iran, some of whom are close to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, in an attempt to reduce Iranian influence and send a clear message that Washington will not tolerate any activities that undermine its strategic interests in the region.
As the date of the parliamentary elections in the Kurdistan Region, scheduled for October 2024, approaches, their importance grows in the face of the complex challenges confronting the region. The Kurdistan Democratic Party, currently led by Masoud Barzani, is expected to maintain its strong and superior position in these anticipated elections. Prior to the elections, the party will focus on the power of its relations with constituency and coherence among the party members. While being the traditional opposition party to the KDP, the PUK suffers from deep disagreements and divisions among the party members caused by the Secretary-General’s Baful Talabani unilateral decisions on political and critical matters. Thereby many long-standing members were led to resign from the party and defecting members were led to form a new opposition party. After the elections, and a strong performance expected, the KDP party will play a pivotal role in forming the new government, implementing policies, and negotiating with Baghdad. These election results and the subsequent role of the party will have a significant impact on Kurdistan’s approach to economic reforms, security enhancement, and foreign relations.
In conclusion, the Kurdistan Regional Government stands at a critical and more importantly, pivotal crossroads. It faces enormous challenges ranging from economic crises to internal and external political tensions. However, the achievements made so far, and the ambitious future vision adopted by the government, indicate the possibility of achieving tangible progress. The success of these efforts remains contingent on the government’s ability to balance internal ambitions and external pressures, and to achieve a delicate balance in its relations with regional and international powers. Amid these challenges and opportunities, the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, led by the KDP, remains a pivotal element in the equation of stability and development in the Middle East, holding significant potential for future growth and development.
feature Photo by Ngar Amini on Unsplash
